Abstract

The human mind has an inherent ability to make reasonable predictions about future events, even with limited information and data. By understanding common patterns found in nature and society, we can train our intuition to forecast better outcomes in a variety of everyday situations or even in industrial quality practices. Following a systematic, four-step plan allows reliable intuitive predictions to be made quickly. With practice, this approach builds strong pattern recognition, activates relevant prior knowledge and leverages simple-but-robust statistical principles as mental models.