Abstract

We constantly encounter situations that prompt us to form hypotheses about how things work or what might happen next. These hypotheses serve as mental roadmaps, helping us navigate uncharted territories. While we may not operate within the confines of a scientific lab, adopting a scientific mindset can greatly enhance our critical thinking and decision making. The challenge becomes generating plausible hypotheses while also revising them as new data come in. Bayes’ theorem updates the probability of an initial hypothesis to the probability of an updated hypothesis by incorporating this new data.