Planning for System Reliability Demonstration Tests under Zero Component Failures(基于零组件失效的系统可靠性验证试验计划)
Dr. Tongdan Jin (金彤丹博士), Assistant Professor of Industrial Engineering, Texas State University (德克萨斯州立大学工业工程系助理教授)
Beijing Time: January 19, 2011; 11:00AM – 12:00PM
US Pacific Time: January 18, 2011; 7:00PM – 8:00PM
DISCRIPTION:It is difficult to estimate the confidence interval of a system’s reliability with zero failures experienced. We approach this problem by proposing a hybrid model that integrates the Bayesian model with the variance propagation technique. The Bayesian model will compute the moments of component reliability estimates, and the variance propagation technique is used to estimate the system reliability variance. The confidence interval for the system reliability is then derived by matching the moments with a beta distribution. As a major contribution, the distribution for reliability estimates with zero failures is explicitly derived. The performance of the new model is compared with existing methods, and further validated by simulation data. The results show that the hybrid model generally outperforms existing methods in terms of estimation accuracy. Because the new model does not require multiple integral calculations, it can be applied to design complex systems configured in mixed series-parallel or networked components.
PRESENTER: Dr. Tongdan Jin is a tenure-track Assistant Professor in the Ingram School of Engineering at Texas State University. Prior to the academia, he held a reliability engineer position for five years at Teradyne Inc., Boston. He obtained the Ph.D. in Industrial & Systems Engineering from Rutgers University. He has published more than 50 technical papers in various journals and conference proceedings with his collaborators. His research interests include reliability modeling and optimization, electronic prognostics, and probabilistic methods in power systems.
Key Words & Terminologies with Chinese Translation:Bayesian theory (贝叶斯理论), beta distribution(BETA分布), reliability demonstration test(可靠性测试), zero failures(零失效), variance analysis(方差分析)
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