Alexander, Melvin T. (1990, ASQC) Westinghouse Electric Corp., Baltimore, MD
Time-Series forecasting, generally a business and economics tool, was applied to an engineering work center to estimate future production hottrs. Future production hours were estimated by modeling the effects of trend, seasonal, and structural patterns from historical production hour data. Actual data for 10 weeks were compared with the forecasts. The 10-week mean absolute percentage forecasting accuracies were over 90%; The approach used in this study can also be used in other areas of engineering, inventory control, and quality control. This paper describes the methods and strategies used to generate effective forecasts.