Quality: The Next Fifty Years

Article

Dew, John R.   (1997, ASQ)   Lockheed Martin Utility Services, Paducah, KY

Annual Quality Congress, Orlando, FL    Vol. 51    No. 0
QICID: 10647    May 1997    pp. 974-981
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Article Abstract

A Future Studies analysis of the quality profession has identified scenarios and branch points. Multifold trend analysis suggests the next 50 years of the quality movement will be driven by trends in: quality as a profession; general public education about quality; new technologies; and globalization of the movement. Examples of trends in these four areas include: ASQC's role in defining the profession; quality principles in high school and college curricula; the on-going revolution in computing and information management; and international cooperation and standards, including quality revolutions in the Third World. These trends generate surprise-free projections such as: a five-fold membership increase for ASQC; movement of quality principles into elementary and high schools in the industrialized world; improvements in materials research, Internet technology, and heterogeneous multi-process technologies; and quality revolutions in China and Africa. The major trends also generate mildly pessimistic and mildly optimistic scenarios. For example, ASQC has little or no growth in a pessimistic forecast, while it grows ten fold in an optimistic forecast. Realization of a given scenario depends on branch points. Two major branch points in this analysis are the success or failure of: setting academic boundaries for the body of knowledge that is quality; and establishing a global quality society.

Keywords

American Society for Quality Control (ASQC),Education,Technology,Globalization,Quality profession,Forecasting


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