November 2002 • Table of Contents
Coming Soon: the Future
ASQ finds revealing insights for quality professionals
by Kenneth E. Case, ASQ president-elect
LEARNING FROM THE past is essential, whether you're a politician, general, CEO, nurse, teacher, parent or child.
For a business or nonprofit organization, learning from the past is not enough. Amid a continuous whirlwind of change in technology, consumer demands, demographics, social trends and other influences, today's organizations have a much better chance of succeeding if they also learn from the future.
This special report examines the highlights of the third futures study conducted this year by the American Society for Quality.
Two previous studies
In 1996, ASQ's first futures study, Quality, the Future and You, identified potential changes that could occur within society and how they might impact ASQ and its members. As a result of this groundbreaking study, we made significant adjustments to prepare for the world of tomorrow.
A second study in 1999, Foresight 2020, prompted ASQ to initiate further changes to better prepare for meeting the new expectations of existing and prospective members. Table 1 (p. 27) shows the major changes that followed these two studies.
Last summer, the ASQ board believed the time was right to conduct a third study to energize our strategic planning efforts. We wanted to be better positioned to shift gears faster than ever to meet new challenges as they unfold.
ASQ's 2002 futures team included a diverse group of 20 who devoted two days to exploring the future.1 They were guided by representatives from the Institute for Alternative Futures and aided by information from an ASQ international Delphi study that concluded several dozen social, political, economic and technical forces could shape the future of quality. (Delphi studies use gatherings of knowledgeable people who meet electronically to gather data, generate ideas or reach consensus.)
Seven key forces
The 2002 futures team identified seven key forces most apt to shape quality in the foreseeable future. These key forces are important for quality professionals and ASQ because they set the tone for how we must be braced for the challenges that lie ahead.
1. Quality must deliver bottom-line results. To demonstrate quality's true impact and investment value, we must fully engage the language of finance, economics and business. This must become our own natural language, not a foreign one.
2. Management systems will increasingly absorb the quality function. The quality profession will be difficult to define as quality is further decentralized and becomes an integral component of good management. The role of the quality professional is shifting from "doing quality for employees" to "coaching employees to do quality for themselves."
3. Quality will be everyone's job. We have an opportunity to develop the practices and understanding of the future workforce by introducing continuous improvement and other quality processes in educational systems and training programs. Six Sigma, for example, has accelerated this trend by bringing advanced quality tools into the hands of top performing business managers, who comprise the majority of Black Belts.
4. The economic case for a broader application of quality will need to be proven. For quality methods to be applied to large-scale social and environmental problems, economists must be engaged to link the cost of quality to its benefits. The bottom-line impact of Six Sigma to corporations can help make this case, bearing in mind cost reduction is only one dimension of quality.
5. Global demand for products and services will create a global workforce. Large corporations increasingly transport employees from country to country as projects, profits or productivity demands. These new global citizens are joined by virtual employees who telecommute in a global knowledge community.
6. Trust and confidence in business leaders and organizations will decline. Consumers will become increasingly conscious of and responsive to the perceived ethical conduct of the organizations they patronize. The ethical aspects of a growing number of issues and decisions will assume greater importance and be more visible.
7. Customer expectations will rise. Consumers, who have become accustomed to speed, efficiency and excellent customer service when conducting business over the internet, will demand the same in retail transactions. Government, public service and charitable entities will also be measured against these internet driven benchmarks.
Four possible scenarios
Armed with the Delphi study of trends and the key forces, the ASQ futures team developed four pictures of what society might look like in the not too distant future. These scenarios are composite descriptions of four different futures influenced by the same trends.
Each scenario is considered plausible, depending on the collective choices we make. Quality professionals can all use these scenarios to stimulate thinking about how we can help shape the likelihood of a desirable scenario's becoming reality. The four scenarios are:
Scenario 1--The fruits of knowledge. This is considered to be the most likely of the four scenarios, with quality management taking center stage. See Table 2 (p. 28) for details about this scenario.
Scenario 2--Back to the past. This scenario describes a vicious cycle of economic and environmental disruption, ineffective leadership and social fragmentation. The quality profession has dwindled to near extinction as a result of disenchantment with its outcomes, institutional cost reductions and the profession's failure to grasp the seriousness of the situation and respond proactively.
Scenario 3--Sustainability. In this scenario, sustainability is the central organizing principle for society. Quality is recognized as the best approach for achieving sustainability. Quality philosophies, techniques and tools have become ubiquitous. However, much of this progress has been achieved at the price of stronger, larger government. There is an ominous rise in paternalism and authoritarianism.
Scenario 4--The garden of quality. The world has truly become a global village in this scenario. We've progressed from allowing technology to drive business and business to drive society to subsuming technology to human and biospheric well being. Most large institutions are fraying, giving way to fluid, evolving, human centered systems based on trust and mutual benefit. Communicating worldwide is as easy and prevalent as breathing. Quality is embedded in every sphere of activity. People work within connected communities to pursue common goals for human betterment.
Impact on quality professionals
By carefully analyzing these scenarios, we can project how the major trends embedded in all four are likely to impact quality professionals in the years ahead.
The tools and body of knowledge of quality will be adopted by more types of people in a wider spectrum of organizational settings, making it more difficult to define who and what constitutes the quality profession.
Instead of operating within a quality department, practitioners are more likely to be dispersed throughout an organization. They will need access to quality tools and must possess the skill sets required to function in this new setting.
Although this new environment can be overwhelming, it can open up new possibilities for the quality professional. The role of the future quality professional is as a technical coach, mentor and integrator who leads by virtue of a deep commitment to fundamental business improvement that comes from his or her knowledge, skills and attitudes about solving problems democratically. Recognizing the value of teamwork, quality professionals need to develop these types of skills among our best and brightest.
For example, instead of trying to sell universities on academic quality departments, quality professionals should be encouraging multidimensional quality hubs like those already set up at several colleges of business, engineering, and art and sciences.
ASQ itself could push for adding the study of quality principles and management as a business school requirement for future managers and executives.
Concern that our relationship with technology is intruding on our relationships with people will propel what's called the "appropriate use" or "simple" movement. The key words here are "simple" and its corollary, "enjoyable." The increasing complexity of life and the speed of change will create a premium on those things that simplify life in enjoyable ways.
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Emphasis on economics. The economics of quality will re-emerge as the most critical dimension of quality. Executives have always believed in the link between economics and quality. Today's executives, however, are looking for more direct evidence. This means we must be comfortable talking with executives in their language--that of finance, economics and business.
How ASQ must change
Building a preferred future--whether for an individual or an association--begins with a vision. The futures study team considered how ASQ's current offerings and activities need to be adjusted to effectively serve members in the years ahead.
Using the key forces and scenarios as a guide, the team developed a series of important aims for the Society. The top new or restated aims to consider are:
1. Improve the outcomes of organizations by making them more competitive.
2. Empower people to improve their impact in the workplace through training and certification.
3. Reduce waste in all its forms, including time, money, materials and pollution.
4. Contribute to a better society, one in which decisions and actions are based on the widespread use of quality concepts and tools.
5. Improve the quality of products and services.
6. Inspire personal improvement.
7. Develop leaders of quality, even though they may not be identified with the word "quality."
8. Improve the environment through the use of quality based design principles that consider the entire product life cycle, clear through to disposal or reuse.
9. Use quality to enhance outcomes in specific sectors such as education, healthcare and government.
The results of the 2002 futures study are being incorporated into ASQ's strategic thinking for 2003-2004. The study played an important role during a strategic planning session in August and will be revisited frequently as we refine our strategic direction and specific activities for the upcoming year.
Our world is changing rapidly in ways we could not have imagined a generation or two ago. The internet is ubiquitous. Information is instantaneous. People are more aware of environmental issues such as climate change. The threat of global terrorism hangs like a dark cloud over the world and its economy.
Because of this rapid change and the possibility of major unforeseen events, ASQ is considering making futuring an evergreen activity--one that's always in the process of being continually improved.
NOTE
1. Members of the 2002 ASQ futures team included Jennifer Admussen, Employment Solutions Inc.; ASQ President-Elect Ken Case, Oklahoma State University; ASQ Vice President Daniel Duhan, Northrop Grumman; Steven Hoisington, Johnson Controls; ASQ Vice President Jad Jadunath, Regis University; ASQ President Liz Keim, Integrated Quality Resources; Robert King, Registrar Accreditation Board; William McEachern, Alverno College, Milwaukee; ASQ Chairman Thomas Mosgaller, Marshall Erdman & Associates; and several ASQ staff members.
