ASQ - Electronics and Communications Division

Reliability Predictions to Support a Design For Reliability Program

Abstract: 2011 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must first be obtained from the IEEE.

Traditional reliability prediction methods have in the past missed the mark in supporting the system engineering design process to such a great extent that some professionals view any form of reliability prediction as anathema to designing reliable systems. For example, the Department of Defense (DoD) Guide for Achieving Reliability, Availability and Maintainability [1] cites “Reliance on predictions instead of conducting engineering design analysis” as one of many reasons why military systems are failing to meet reliability targets. The December 6, 2007 memorandum on reliability from Assistant Secretary of the Army, Claude Bolton, [2] states “Reliability Predictions, based on handbooks or similar approaches, are historically highly inaccurate and can lead to poor design decisions.”

Keywords: Design Reliability - Failure Rate - Failure Analysis - Product Reliability - RAMS 2011 Proceedings - Reliability Analysis/Prediction/Estimation

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